Looming oil shortages are no longer a vague maybe-it-will, maybe-it-won’t happen threat.
German airline Lufthansa is canceling 20,000 flights up until October, reducing its flight schedule by 120 trips a day. It’s not the only airline reducing flight capacity. Norse Atlantic has cut flights from Los Angeles, and U.S. airlines like Delta have begun reducing their schedules as well.
Due to the war with Iran, global oil supplies have been severely disrupted, and the International Energy Agency has stated that Europe may have less than six weeks‘ worth of jet fuel left.
So where does that leave your summer travel plans? Are hanging on by a thread, but not lost. There are a few steps you can take to minimize the impact on your vacation plans.
What is Causing The Worldwide Jet Fuel Shortage
The Strait of Hormuz lies between Iran and Oman and is the single most important chokepoint in global energy supply. When access is disrupted, oil markets feel it immediately.
Delta alone reported an additional $400 million in fuel costs in March. That number is one airline, in a single month. Multiply that across every major carrier globally, and you begin to understand the scale of what’s hitting the industry right now.
Average airfares worldwide have jumped 24%. Airlines are also cutting off-peak routes to offset fuel spend. Less inventory means higher prices and fewer options for travelers.
What This Means for Your Summer Plans
The most important thing to understand is this: prices are not going to drop before summer. Holding out to the last minute is not the move you want to make right now.
Especially if you want to spend your summer vacation abroad.
International routes are the hardest hit by the jet fuel shortage. Due to their high fuel cost, long-haul flight prices are skyrocketing.
Domestic travel in the U.S. is a bit more insulated. With shorter routes burning less fuel, the prices are increasing, but not at the same rate as international routes.
With international travel demand at its lowest since 2022, we are looking at a re-run of the pandemic for the travel industry. Many travelers are choosing to delay their plans or cancel entire trips.
But if you’re still committed to going, there is one silver lining: less competition for flight tickets. However, the limited inventory (aka the reduced flight schedule) means much higher prices closer to departure.
Read More: 10 Essential Air Travel Tips That’ll Change Your Life
What to Do Right Now: The Concierge Playbook
Here is my concierge game plan, I’ve been sharing with my private clients:
1. Book now, not later: The window for reasonable pricing is narrowing or completely gone. If you have a destination in mind and dates that work, booking today is cheaper than booking in six weeks. Airlines are not going to absorb these fuel costs indefinitely.
2. Use points and miles where you can: If you have loyalty points sitting unused, a fuel price crisis is exactly the moment to use them. Look at your balances before reaching for your credit card.
3. Prioritize flexible fares: Yes, flexible tickets cost more upfront. In a market this volatile, that premium buys you real optionality. If your plans shift, if a route gets cut, or if something changes between now and August, a refundable fare is an asset.
4. Check your travel insurance: Not all policies cover disruptions that stem from geopolitical or supply-related events. Look for policies that explicitly cover trip cancellation and interruption due to airline operational changes, not just weather or illness.
One More Reason to Plan Smarter This Summer
The fuel situation isn’t the only thing reshaping summer travel to Europe.
The EU’s new Entry/Exit System (which changes how non-EU travelers cross Schengen borders) became fully operational on 10 April 2026, replacing manual passport stamping with a digital, biometric system for non-EU nationals visiting the Schengen area.
I’ll have a full breakdown on what to expect and how to prepare in my next post.
Saving Your Summer Vacation Plans
The Strait of Hormuz disruption is causing havoc with airlines and travel plans, but there are ways around it. Travelers who navigate this world event by buying tickets today rather than tomorrow and choosing refundable tickets can protect their summer vacation and handle disruptions or cancellations without additional costs.
Waiting for a better deal is a gamble that the data says you’ll lose. The better move is to book smart, book now, and book with flexibility built in.
If you want a second opinion on your specific itinerary, whether to book, which routes to prioritize, or how to structure your points redemptions, let me know in the comments!